Europe’s Log Shortage: Why Timber Supply Chains Are Tightening
Europe is entering a new era in log supply. Structural softwood shortages are emerging across several key countries, including Germany, the Czech Republic, and Norway — with reported deficits of over 8 million m³ combined in 2024 alone. These log shortages are already leading to a decline in production at sawmills and wood-processing facilities, as raw material access becomes increasingly constrained. The impact spans both coniferous and broadleaf species and affects a range of downstream industries from biomass to construction and furniture manufacturing.
Why It’s Happening:
The root causes are multifactorial:
Forest Health Decline: Bark beetle outbreaks, intensified by drought and heatwaves, have degraded spruce forests, especially in Central Europe.
Harvesting Peaks: Record-high salvage logging from 2017 to 2021 frontloaded supply, leaving a deficit now as harvests revert to long-term sustainable levels.
Trade Constraints: Sanctions and legal restrictions have reduced access to external log sources (notably Eastern Europe and Russia).
Continued Demand: Construction, panel production, and renewable energy sectors continue to drive high raw material consumption.
Market Impacts:
Log Prices Up, Margins Down: Tight availability is pushing log prices higher, particularly for spruce and beech, while sawmill margins are squeezed due to relatively stable lumber prices.
Supply Chain Volatility: European manufacturers face difficulty securing consistent feedstock, risking production delays and cost escalation.
Shifts in Log Trade: A re-balancing of wood flows are expected to occur, as several Central and Western European markets are forecasted to import more logs and sawn timber in the coming years to meet domestic demand
Looking Ahead:
With log availability tightening across Europe, sawmills must proactively secure raw material supply to maintain production targets and avoid disruptions. As the supply-demand gap widens, access to logs may soon dictate which segments of the value-added wood industry receive priority — potentially restructuring the market by limiting availability for lower-margin sawn lumber. In this environment, it is crucial for timber buyers — including sawmills, panel producers, and furniture manufacturers — to diversify sourcing and ensure full traceability and legal compliance.
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